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Monday, August 2, 2010

Why Do They Do It?

You visit a new blog on betting or trading, and you just instinctively know how it's going to pan out, don't you.
10 seconds into the introduction and the BIG mission statement is trumpeted. Yep, it's going to be yet another of those "£100 into £100,000 in twelve months" challenges.

You read on in mounting apprehension, but you allow yourself to be carried along by the guy's enthusiasm. There's a certain naive charm about his exuberance. His confidence is sky-high and unshakeable, though you know from past experience of reading such blogs that it will all end in tears sooner or later. Within three weeks that starting bank of £100 will have been whittled down to about £57; in two months time a project that was begun in fanfare will have crashed and burned. The author will quietly and discreetly exit the blogosphere to lick his wounds, and his now abandoned blog will linger untended and unloved as a sad testimony to one more busted dream.

"I've paper-traded my methods for the past year", the guy says. "The strategy I'm gonna use -- backing 1.07 in-running certainties -- is proven, My paper-trade records prove that I can make a 1,000% profit cumulatively within 12 months by staking 5% of my bank each time."
Let me get this right, he's only fantasy traded before and now he's confident of making ten thousand a month betting £5.00 a time on 1/18 shots.

Occasionally, he will make a new post about how yesterday his trades yielded a profit of 2.8% on turnover. Cool. So you've added £1.61 to your £57 bank ............... after 5 hours of anxious, nerve-wracking hard work trading the markets.
You can see the guy is chuffed to bits; he's saying that this is a long-term game -- many little steps to make an epic journey, etc, etc. And this latest bit of minor success has proved to him and (he hopes) to everyone that his system is sound, and with perseverance and maybe a little tweaking he will make that £100,000 target in the 10 months to come.

But you know and anyone with a working brain knows that the "plan" is unworkable, unfeasible and grossly unrealistic. If someone is putting £2 a trade and gaining 5 pence a "tick", the long-term outcome will always be smalltime. Each ten tiny steps forward will be cancelled out by a substantial knock-back on the one trade that went wrong. The guy is staking all wrong; he is making trades with undercapitalised funding ( making it even less effective by trading with just 5% of his bank each trade); and betting on 1.07 certainties that only take one losing bet to seriously indent his bank.
The future for him is bleak indeed. What he doesn't get ( among many other things) is that if you are calling the momentum trades correctly you should be maximising your profit potential by trading to your limit.
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Why do these guys feel this incomprehensible urge to publish to the world a record of their trading/betting activity? Do they honestly think anyone really cares. Does anybody give a flying fuck about someone else's bets? I know I don't. All that matters is whether OUR OWN bets won or lost. Okay, you might mention that sweet £10 Win double you had earlier today to your mate over a couple of beers down the pub. But that's it. Do you feel the need to blog the world about it?

So why do they do it? Either they are deluded to the point of insanity to think that anyone cares sufficiently; or as I suspect, they are looking at some future angle about turning the effort into a "pay-for" service. Yep, a private subscription whereby the "secrets" will be disclosed to a small and select circle. By invitation only, you understand, and directly to your email inbox. To this end, mention of and reference to losers will gradually disappear to be replaced by a constant trumpeting of winners. The grooming has begun.

So, in light of the above ............... why have I added this new blog to the millions of others already out there? And a blog about trading and betting at that? What's my purpose and agenda?
It's an effort to encourage a few more visitors to check out my ad-free spam-free promotion-free beginner's Guide To Trading website at www.sportstrading. biz.
I can't be any more unfront or honest than that. The site is totally free and has no agenda or purpose whatsoever except to provide a few small pointers to anyone thinking about dipping their toes into the world of trading sports events. Do drop by and have a look when you have a moment.

And what is this blog going to be about? Well, I don't know yet! But it certainly will NOT be chocked with after-timing posts about "how it went today" like the example described at the outset. More a review of sportstrading issues and interests.
(Hey, here's a crazy idea; how about having a blog that points to future profitable trades or value bets). Thinking that that might not be such a bad idea at all.
Do call back to this Blog, contribute your views, and together we'll see where this "work-in-progress" takes us.

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